The Guardian recently reported that ecological collapse is likely to start sooner than previously expected, according to a new study that models how tipping points can amplify and accelerate one another.

Based on these findings, the authors warn that more than a fifth of ecosystems worldwide, including the Amazon rainforest, are at risk of a catastrophic breakdown within a human lifetime.

“It could happen very soon,” said Prof Simon Willcock of Rothamsted Research, who co-led the study. “We could realistically be the last generation to see the Amazon.”

The research was published on Thursday in Nature Sustainability.

Here in Australia we are starting to witness tipping points, where specific ecosystems are being pushed beyond their capacity to recover from impacts like fire, then experiencing ecological collapse whereby an existing system – for instance an alpine ash forest – collapses and is replaced by something else (in the case of alpine ash it might be a mix of grass and shrubs).

This is not ‘new’ news. At least it shouldn’t be to anyone who is reading the science and paying attention to the land. The signs are obvious across the high country, with widespread loss of snow gum woodlands and alpine ash forests.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) WGII Sixth Assessment Report was released in 2022 and contains dire warnings for the mountain country f south eastern Australia and lutruwita/ Tasmania:

It says ‘in southern Australia, some forest ecosystems (alpine ash, snowgum woodland, pencil pine, northern jarrah) are projected to transition to a new state or collapse due to hotter and drier conditions with more fires.

Over the past 30 years, drought-induced canopy dieback across a range of forest and woodland types, and death of fire-sensitive tree species due to unprecedented wildfires has occurred’.

It specifically warns about Snow Gums and Alpine Ash

Threat:

There is risk of transition or collapse of alpine ash and snowgum woodland, due to hotter and drier conditions with more fires

Its not too late

We can respond to the existential threats to these unique Australian landscapes.

  • The first thing, of course is to do everything in our power to reduce greenhouse gas emissions asap as part of global efforts to tackle climate change.
  • The second is to develop a plan to protect snow gum woodlands at threat form more frequent fire regimes. There are some ideas here.
  • We need to continue aerial seeding programs to help ensure the survival of alpine ash forests.
  • We need extra capacity to fight fires before they become massive blazes in mountain and forested areas.

You can read more here.

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