As we wait for winter snows, every skier, rider and winter enthusiast is scanning the weather and reading the pre season forecasts.
As was reported recently on Weatherzone here April was exactly 1°C warmer than the long-term average across Australia, but the warmth was even more pronounced in Victoria, where temperatures were 2.37°C higher than the long-term average.
That made it Victoria’s warmest April since national record-keeping commenced in 1910, while for Australia as a whole it was the 14th-warmest.
With sustained warm weather and clear skies, no one is really banking on a great season. But after two dire winters, we all need a break, especially the businesses who rely on good snowfalls and a long season.
The regular forecasters are all issuing their pre season assessments. As expected none are looking particularly rosy. However some are hopeful that decent snow falls will happen by mid next month.
Weatherzone says:
The rainfall outlook for May indicates an increased likelihood of below average rainfall across the Alpine regions of Victoria and NSW with a strong bias for below-average rainfall across regions inland of the Great Dividing Range.
The increased likelihood of drier conditions through May and potentially continuing into June may suggest the dominance of higher pressure and mostly stable weather conditions across southeast Australia. This could result in a lower frequency of rain (and snow) bearing cold fronts passing over the Alpine regions. Consequently, this may lead to lower natural snow accumulation leading up to the start of the season in June.
This is not a promising outlook for the start of the ski season in terms of natural snowfall. With the higher likelihood of above-average temperatures across the Alpine regions, natural snowfalls at lower resort levels are less likely, with resorts likely to be reliant on snow-making where available. Snowfall is still likely over the higher elevations.
The bias towards warmer-than-average temperatures may also result in snow melting following any early snowstorms and a delay in establishing a snowpack ahead of further mid-winter storms.
The Grass Hopper
We are still waiting for the updated season from The Grasshopper. Grasshopper writes on Mountain Watch website.
Pete ‘The Frog’ Taylor, writing on Snowatch says:
Medium term there isn’t a much to look forward to in regards to natural snowfalls. The high pressure systems should force most cold fronts to the south of the mainland and NZ snowfields will probably benefit until we see a shift in the pattern. NZ South Island snowfields could see no less than five snow bearing cold fronts over the next two weeks. They aren’t huge falls but could still see a light base before the month is out.
For the Australian mainland resorts we will have to wait a while until we see some decent natural snow. We will need a shift in the position of the large high pressure systems before any potential snow bearing systems can reach far enough north to drop snow in the resorts. Still plenty of time so no need to panic. The second and third weeks of June are showing good potential so will be keeping an eye on these systems.
And as Tyson Millar notes,
‘The long-range outlook leans firmly toward a dry, sluggish start to winter in the Aus alpine, particularly over the next 3 to 5 weeks.’
However, he does hold out some hope:
‘At ultra-long-range, we are expecting the MJO to fade and reestablish itself in the Maritime Continent late-May, early June – Highlighting its next transition could offer SE Australia a chance at significant snowfall, in early to mid-June.’
Fingers crossed!
You would normally hope for some decent snow falls in May to cool and prepare the ground for the start of persistent snow pack in June. Its still early and, as was shown last year, even a warm winter will deliver a few wonderful snow events – like late july 2024. Check below for a report from that most excellent snow.
[HEADER IMAGE: one wonderful weekend, mid July 2024. The big camp at JB Plain]
Mountain Journal 
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