Mountain Journal

There is no doubt that climate change is already impacting on snow conditions in Australia, and hence impacting on the industries that need snow to be viable. When it comes to responding to this existential threat, there are three key options: ignore it (in the hope it will go away), reduce our contribution to the problem (also called mitigation) or just try to adapt to the changes that the problem brings (also known as adaptation). With few exceptions, ski resorts in Australia have opted for the first and the third options. A sensible, responsible and forward thinking ski industry would be doing both adaptation and mitigation.

A report released by the Victorian government will help local resorts steer themselves along the path of adaptation.

The Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Report is an ‘important demonstration of government’s commitment to increasing the capacity of the alpine sector to adapt as the climate is changing’. It is an exhaustive study of the likely impacts of climate change on each resort, covering everything from snow conditions through to the likely impacts on accommodation, road conditions and fire risk.

It was based on The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Victorian Alpine Resorts report prepared for the Alpine Resorts Co-ordinating Council (ARCC) in 2016, then further developed through stakeholder consultation with the ski industry and others.

“The project assessed the climate change vulnerability of Victoria’s alpine resorts and how this could affect the economic, social and cultural value of the resorts as climate change occurs. The project identified and recognised the substantial economic, social and cultural value the alpine resorts currently contribute to Victoria”.

The vulnerability assessment confirms what we have known for at least the last decade and a half: that the winter season in the alpine resorts will be impacted by climate change through significant changes to natural snow fall conditions and patterns, including reductions in natural snow fall over time. The project also found that the ‘summer season’, or ‘green’ season activities of resorts will be impacted by climate change through increased bushfire risk.

It also highlights a problem with the current approach of the industry: ‘the rate and severity of the loss of snow at the resorts is influenced by both the severity of global warming (dependent on the rate of global decarbonisation) and the extent to which the resorts can effectively implement adaptive responses to climate change’. Ie, adaptation is not enough. All major contributors of climate change need to be doing their part to reduce future global warming. For resorts, at a minimum, this means shifting all their operations over to 100% renewable energy asap.

The report also highlights what had previously been known, that the southern Victorian resorts (Lake Mountain and Mount Baw Baw) will be impacted sooner than the northern resorts. The impact across the northern resorts (Mount Hotham, Falls Creek and Mount Buller) is largely consistent, though Falls Creek currently has a slightly better medium-term adaptive capacity due to its southerly aspect, high elevation and access to abundant water for snow making.

The vulnerability assessment states that “if sufficient adaptive responses are deployed, the northern resorts should be able to offer adequate snow to support winter snow activities in the short to medium term (approximately more than 20 years)”.

It notes that ‘without adaptation, these climate change impacts will threaten the economic, social and cultural value of the alpine resorts. The project found that the alpine resort community has a history of adaptation and resilience in the face of changing and challenging conditions, and this gives the alpine resorts a solid foundation for climate change adaptation planning. Long term adaptation planning led by the alpine resorts sector is the next step in successful sector adaptation’.

What’s next?

This report will be used by the ARCC (which is responsible for leading climate change adaptation planning for the alpine resorts sector in the state), to develop of an updated Alpine Resorts Strategic Plan. The Vulnerability Assessment Report will “form a key component of the package of information for industry stakeholders during the development of the new Alpine Resorts Strategic Plan. Those involved in the development of the Vulnerability Assessment Report will be re-engaged in the review and development of the Alpine Resorts Strategic Plan”.

The main report is available here.

Some take out notes from the report

My reaction to the report and a word of caution

I am not a climate scientist. But I have read widely about the likely impacts of climate change on the Australian alpine environment and hence the ski industry. What is really significant about this report is that it suggests that the end of skiable snow will come sooner than has been previously forecast.

It says “the northern resorts should be able to offer adequate snow to support winter snow activities in the short to medium term (approximately more than 20 years)”.

Previous reports I have seen have tended to identify 2050 or 2070 as the likely time frame for this to happen if we continue with a business as usual approach of greenhouse gas emissions. I have not had the time to check the references and sources used in this report. But if this report is correct, then the likely timeframe for us seeing an end to a viable winter ski industry has been brought forward by several decades. If this is true, those of us wo love (or economically rely on) winter should be extremely alarmed.

The report gives an indication of the “trajectory of (expected) change”, but also says that “further analysis is required to highlight the rate of change over the next few decades” (page 69). Climate science predictions rely on modelling which is becoming ever more refined. It is not clear to me whether this report is based on the very latest consensus climate science and hence whether its findings are at the extreme end of the various forecasts. We should note that the report itself qualifies its findings (page 71) regarding the use of decadal data. It cautions about the use of the findings, because the Victorian Alps are highly variable systems across years and altitudes, and that while the overall trend is towards raising temperatures, more attention needs to be paid to finer scale processes that occur at daily or smaller time steps.

Erratic is the New Normal

“The recent data for temperatures and natural snowfall shows decadal trends consistent with a warming climate and declining natural snow fall. It is also consistent with the trends foreshadowed by climate change analysis from the 1990s and confirmed by recent, more detailed assessments. However, the inter-year variability is so great that this is only apparent in decadal averages, and in any shorter period there will be seasons that are not dissimilar to even the ‘best’ historic seasons.

Climate change also increases the number of extreme weather events. While this can mean large dumps of snowfall to improve snow cover, it can also mean large rainfall (precipitation that doesn’t fall as snow) that increase or accelerate the washing out of natural snow cover. Increased temperatures and dry periods also have the effect of increasing or accelerating snowmelt and the loss of top up snow (which is important for protecting the snow cover base). Lower quality and variable snow cover is less enjoyable, and the ways in which snow can be experienced and enjoyed become less diverse (advanced skiing becomes harder to do, for example). This has the effect of changing visitation patterns, and in poor seasons visitation decreases substantially”.

 The lower elevation resorts will be the first to go

“For lower altitude resorts it is arguable that without artificial snow, the amount of snow available is too little for too short a period for the resorts to be viable even now, on average. The warmer conditions in some years already limit the number of days and hours when snow can be made by snow guns, particularly at the lower resorts such as Lake Mountain”.

Are we at a Tipping Point moment?

It is possible that we will see a “Rapid transition to no natural snow The mountains are expected to warm faster as there is less snow. As a result, the transition from having significant natural snow to having almost no natural snow is expected to happen quite quickly across an area. While a threshold issue for viability, it is also likely to be a tipping point which once passed, is unlikely to be reversed.

The tipping point will not occur in a single year, and there may be a few years during the transition with significant, even heavy, snow fall. However once it becomes established, low/no snow conditions will be increasingly self-reinforcing, making such natural snow as does fall far more transient with both warmer air and ground temperatures”.

While making snow can contribute some local cooling by reflection and cooling the ground, it will be insufficient to affect conditions at the scale required to prevent the transition. The transition will occur first at lower altitudes and rise up the mountains. Once this process starts, it may rise quite quickly from low to higher altitudes as extensive if transient lower altitude snow fields are lost causing regional scale changes in temperature.

If they don’t do their bit, will resorts lose their social licence?

“Another factor may increasingly come into play over time. If the resorts and winter sports are perceived to be intensive generators of greenhouse gases (GHG) it may affect the social acceptability of winter sports as an activity, affecting marketability”.

What does it mean for the resorts?

MT HOTHAM

“Natural snow is expected to decline in amount and reliability with climate change. In the first decade of the 2000s, there was an average of 129 days per year of natural snow cover of one centimetre or more recorded on the higher slopes (1830m) and 98 at about 1650m elevation. In the 2020s, this is predicted to be about 100-120 days on the higher slopes and 59-92 days at 1650m, a modest but significant reduction. On the lower slopes the reduction will be from about 51 days in the 2000s to about 15-44 days. In the twenty years to 2050s, there is significant uncertainty about the number of days of natural snow cover with the estimate ranging from as few as 21 to as many as 114 for the higher slopes and 0-29 days for the lower slopes. The annual number of days of snow cover could stabilise at about this level if there is significant global mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions.

By the 2070s, under the business as usual emissions levels1, the number of days of natural snow cover of one centimetre or more is likely to reduce to the point that there will be only transient natural cover each year. Whether and how quickly this occurs depends on the global success in reducing emissions. Maximum accumulated natural snow depth is also expected to decline to zero to 20 centimetres over this period.

Natural snow is highly sensitive to climate change. This sensitivity results directly in the loss of snow. Short of weather modification, there is no adaptive capacity to restore natural snow across the region. As the highest altitude resort, Mt Hotham will lose natural snow cover later than lower altitude resorts.

Increasing temperatures coupled with a general drying of soil and ground fuels will increase the likelihood of bushfire into the future in Victoria. No specific modelling or research into the current risk of bushfire on the alpine resort locations has been conducted, but it can be assumed there will be some increased exposure to risk of loss of property and life at Mt Hotham.

Climate change in the long run could benefit the resort as people are increasingly drawn to the mountains to escape the heat in summer.

What is the resort doing about mitigation? à “Mt Hotham resort currently receives none of their energy from renewable sources”.

FALLS CREEK

“Natural snow is expected to decline in amount and reliability with climate change. In the first decade of the 2000s, there was an average of 125 days per year of natural snow cover of one centimetre or more recorded on the higher slopes (1800m) and 105 at about 1625m. In the 2020s, this is predicted to be about 92-120 days on the higher slopes and 68-99 days at 1625m, a modest but significant reduction. On the lower slopes the reduction will be from about 77 days in the 2000s to about 41-71 days.

Up to the 2050s, there is significant uncertainty about the number of days of natural snow cover with the estimate ranging from as few as 18 to as many as 108 for the higher slopes, and 2-59 days for the lower slopes. This annual number of days of snow cover could stabilise at about this level if there is significant global mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. Eighty five percent of the resort has slope aspects that have south or south westerly facing topography. The altitude and south facing aspect are favourable for natural snow fall and retention, with Falls Creek showing slightly higher expected snow days in the future than Mt Hotham, reflecting this difference.

By the 2070s, under the business as usual emissions levels, the number of days of natural snow cover of one centimetre of more is likely to reduce to the point that there will be only transient natural cover each year. Whether and how quickly this occurs depends on the level of global emissions that occur. Maximum accumulated snow depth is also expected to decline to zero to 10 centimetres over this period.

As one of the higher altitude resorts with favourable topography, Falls Creek is expected to be the last resort to lose natural snow cover, and much later than the lower altitude resorts.

Falls Creek has been assessed as having an extreme bushfire risk.

What is the resort doing on mitigation? à The report does not state how much renewable energy the resort uses in its operations. (the report does note that “wind or small hydro may be cost effective” at Falls Creek).

MT BULLER & MT STIRLING

“Natural snow is expected to decline in amount and reliability with climate change. At Mt Buller and Mt Stirling, at the highest altitude range of the resorts (around 1,700m elevation), in the first decade of the 2000s, there were about 108 days per year of natural snow cover of one centimetre or more. In the 2020s, this is predicted to be about 70-102 days per year of at least one centimetre of natural snow cover per year. In the 2050s cover is predicted to be between 7-89 days. By the 2070s natural snowfall is likely to reduce to the point that there will be only transient natural cover each year. How quickly this occurs depends on the global emission reductions achieved. Maximum depth is also expected to decline to zero over this period”.

“conditions are likely to become increasingly restricted for conventional snow making as the climate warms, offering fewer operating hours, on average, as each decade passes. Initially more machines operating in the fewer hours available may meet needs.

A transition to more snow factories will be necessary to continue making enough snow to cover runs. But these require a much higher energy input than snow guns.

This could lead to loss of affordable snow.”

MT BAW BAW

“Natural snow is expected to decline in amount and reliability with climate change. In the first decade of the 2000s, there were about 80 days per year of natural snow cover of one centimetre or more. In the 2020s, this is predicted to be about 32-71 days per year. Between the 2050s and 2070s, natural snowfall is likely to reduce to the point that there will be only transient natural cover each year. Maximum snow depth is also expected to decline to zero over this period. How quickly this occurs depends on global success in reducing emissions”.

“As a low-altitude resort, Mt Baw Baw will lose natural snow cover sooner than higher altitude resorts”.

What is the resort doing about mitigation? à the report does not mention if the resort is sourcing any renewable energy for its operations.

“All electrical power required within the resort is supplied by three LPG fuelled generators. The use of generators results in the cost of electricity to consumers being significantly greater than a direct grid connection”.

“Resort plans have already identified developing green energy to reduce greenhouse gases and reduce energy costs as an initiative.”

LAKE MOUNTAIN

“Natural snow is expected to decline in amount and reliability with climate change. In the first decade of the 2000s, there were about 74 days per year of natural snow cover of one centimetre or more. In the 2020s, this is predicted to be about 30-66 days per year of at least one centimetre of natural snow cover per year. This is unlikely to be sufficient to support skiing activity most years but would be sufficient for some snow play at times. Between the 2050s and 2070s, natural snowfall is likely to reduce to the point that there will be only transient natural cover each year. How quickly this occurs depends on the level of greenhouse gas emissions that occur globally. Maximum depth is also expected to decline to zero over this period.

Natural snow is highly sensitive to climate change. This sensitivity results directly in the loss of snow. Short of weather modification, there is no adaptive capacity to restore natural snow across the region. As a low-altitude resort, Lake Mountain will lose natural snow cover sooner than higher altitude resorts”.

What is the resort doing about mitigation? à “Lake Mountain is not connected to the national electricity grid, with diesel generators providing all of the resort’s energy. The current dependence on diesel-powered generators is costly and carbon emission impacts are greater in comparison to grid electricity supply, limiting potential returns that could be reinvested in additional facilities and products”

“Alternatives such as small hydro, wind and biodiesel are being explored”.