As landscapes slowly recover after last summer’s terrible fires, which burnt huge sections of the High Country in Victoria, NSW and the ACT, the seasonal fire forecast for spring is much better than this time last year.
The Australian Seasonal Bushfire Outlook: September – November 2020, produced by the Bushfire and Natural Hazard Cooperative Research Centre, paints a welcome picture of a mild season in the South East and lutruwita/ Tasmania. The Outlook is produced quarterly in order to help fire authorities to make strategic decisions for the coming season, such as resource planning and prescribed fire management.
The spring report says:
The 2020/21 fire season will be driven by vastly different climate drivers than the previous two fire seasons. With a La Niña ALERT now active, large areas of eastern and northern Australia are expecting wetter than average conditions through spring. Despite the wetter climate signals, parts of Queensland face above normal fire potential in the south east and central coast, extending to the north.
While these wetter conditions in eastern Australia will help in the short-term, they may lead to an increase in the risk of fast running fires in grasslands and cropping areas over summer. These conditions will be monitored closely over the coming months.
Fire is a regular occurrence across Australia, and it is important to remember that areas designated as normal fire potential will still see fires. Normal bushfire risk does not mean there is no risk.
There will be an updated report before summer starts. But at this point the outlook is good news for our mountains, and the human communities who live there.
You can download the Australian Seasonal Bushfire Outlook: September – November 2020 here.